Predictions 18-1-2019

On 18-1-2019 we did the following predictions:

Vitesse vs Excelsior

Vitesse 1 wins 42% of the time based on 155 matches.
Excelsior 1 wins 28% of the time based on 155 matches.
Most likely outcome: 1 – 1 (happens 9% of the time) 
This result is based on pattern White: The favorite dominates most of the game, but the underdog has most of the chances (mostly through countering), so more than average it becomes a draw. (White 4)

This turned out to be an accurate prediction compared to the sports betting industry. Their implied odds were: Vitesse 75% win chance and Excelsior 12%. But in reality the match was much more even than that. This is also reflected in the 3-2 final result with a goal for Excelsior cancelled by the VAR.

St. Truiden vs Genk

Genk 1 wins 42% of the time based on 155 matches.
St Truiden 1 wins 28% of the time based on 155 matches.
Most likely outcome: 2 – 1 (happens 9% of the time) 
This result is based on pattern White: The favorite dominates most of the game, but the underdog has most of the chances (mostly through countering), so more than average it becomes a draw. (White 4)

This also turned out to be a more accurate prediction than the prediction of the sports betting industry. Their implied odds had 72% win chance for Genk and 14% for St. Truiden. But again the final result of 2-3 shows that our prediction was closer to reality. Especially when you consider that St. Truiden got ahead twice during the match.